Comeback of air cargo

Volume increase in early 2026, amid signs of recovery and new global balances

March 16, 2026

The start of 2026 brings encouraging signs for air freight transport, which is showing a strong rebound in volumes after the natural contraction at the end of the year. Market data indicate a widespread global recovery, accompanied, however, by capacity and fare dynamics that call for a cautious reading of the scenario. In a logistics context still influenced by geopolitical factors and structural imbalances, air cargo remains a key but evolving segment.

Volumes recovering strongly after the decline at the end of 2025

On an annual basis, tonnages are approximately 5% higher than in the same period of 2025, although still below mid-December levels. Growth has affected almost all major areas of origin, confirming a general recovery in demand

Capacity and tariffs: signs of a still fragile balance

On the supply side, all-cargo aircraft capacity increased by more than 15% on a weekly basis, only partially recovering from the cuts made after the fourth quarter peaks. However, overall capacity remains below end-2025 levels. Global average fares show a slight decline.

The most dynamic routes and the weight of geopolitics

Geographically, volume growth is mainly driven by the Middle East and South Asia, followed by Asia Pacific and North America. In particular, Asia Pacific continues to be the main driver of flows, with significant increases to the United States and Europe. At the same time, the context remains affected by geopolitical uncertainties: the partial recovery of maritime traffic in the Red Sea and international tensions could influence the balance between air and sea transport in the coming months, making flexible management of logistics solutions even more crucial.

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