Declining freight rates
Maritime transport closes 2025 weak and opens 2026 with no signs of recovery.
After years marked by extreme volatility and capacity constraints, maritime transport is entering a new phase that is less turbulent but structurally fragile. The end of 2025 and the start of 2026 confirm a market dominated by overcapacity, with sharply falling rates and global demand struggling to sustain the available supply.
End of 2025: rates under pressure
Maritime transport closes 2025 with a sharp reduction in ocean freight rates. According to Ti Insight's Ocean Freight Rate Tracker – Q4 2025, rates on major global routes are down more than 50% year-on-year, returning to levels close to pre-2020 averages. The most significant declines are concentrated on the Transpacific and Asia–Europe routes, which are penalized by a structural excess of cargo space supply.
Overcapacity and weak demand
Underlying this dynamic is a persistent imbalance between capacity and demand. At the end of 2025, the global container fleet will be approximately 9% larger than in the previous year, while volume growth will remain modest at between 2% and 3%. New deliveries of large container ships and the limited number of demolitions continue to put pressure on freight rates. On the demand side, North America is showing greater resilience, while Europe and Asia remain weaker, partly due to industrial stagnation in Europe and the economic slowdown in China.
The start of 2026
2026 begins in continuity with the end of the previous year. Forecasts indicate stable or further declining freight rates in the early months, barring any extraordinary geopolitical or operational events. Despite the reduction in costs linked to the decline in bunker fuel prices, maritime transport enters the new year with margins under pressure and a highly competitive environment, making careful management of capacity, costs, and commercial strategies crucial.
Photo Credits: Pexels
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